diff --git a/scripts/features/lib/delivered.mjs b/scripts/features/lib/delivered.mjs
index 56e869da4a..72462bc939 100644
--- a/scripts/features/lib/delivered.mjs
+++ b/scripts/features/lib/delivered.mjs
@@ -37,3 +37,52 @@ export function parseChangelog(text, issueNumber) {
   }
   return null;
 }
+
+function isExplicitClose(pr, issueNumber) {
+  const text = `${pr.title ?? ""}\n${pr.body ?? ""}`;
+  const re = new RegExp(`\\b(closes?|fixes?|fixed|resolves?|resolved)\\s+#${issueNumber}\\b`, "i");
+  return re.test(text);
+}
+
+function justMentions(pr, issueNumber) {
+  const text = `${pr.title ?? ""}\n${pr.body ?? ""}`;
+  return new RegExp(`#${issueNumber}\\b`).test(text);
+}
+
+export function detectDelivered(issueNumber, signals) {
+  const { mergedPrs = [], changelog = "", gitCommits = [] } = signals;
+
+  const closesPr = mergedPrs.find((p) => isExplicitClose(p, issueNumber));
+  const mentionPr = closesPr || mergedPrs.find((p) => justMentions(p, issueNumber));
+  const changelogHit = parseChangelog(changelog, issueNumber);
+  const gitHit = gitCommits.length > 0 ? gitCommits[0] : null;
+
+  const A = !!closesPr;
+  const B = !!(mentionPr && !closesPr);
+  const C = !!changelogHit;
+  const D = !!gitHit;
+
+  let confidence = "none";
+  if (A) confidence = "high";
+  else if ((C && D) || (B && C) || (B && D)) confidence = "medium";
+  else if (B || C || D) confidence = "low";
+
+  const evidence = {};
+  if (closesPr) {
+    evidence.pr_merged = {
+      number: closesPr.number,
+      merged_at: closesPr.mergedAt,
+      ref: `closes #${issueNumber}`,
+    };
+  } else if (mentionPr) {
+    evidence.pr_merged = {
+      number: mentionPr.number,
+      merged_at: mentionPr.mergedAt,
+      ref: `mentions #${issueNumber}`,
+    };
+  }
+  if (changelogHit) evidence.changelog_section = changelogHit.section;
+  if (gitHit) evidence.git_commits = gitCommits.slice(0, 5).map((c) => c.hash);
+
+  return { confidence, evidence };
+}
diff --git a/tests/unit/feature-triage/delivered.test.mjs b/tests/unit/feature-triage/delivered.test.mjs
index 316e337dba..d4d964d859 100644
--- a/tests/unit/feature-triage/delivered.test.mjs
+++ b/tests/unit/feature-triage/delivered.test.mjs
@@ -47,3 +47,67 @@ describe("parseChangelog", () => {
     assert.match(r.line, /#980/);
   });
 });
+
+import { detectDelivered } from "../../../scripts/features/lib/delivered.mjs";
+
+const CLOSES_PR = {
+  number: 2380,
+  title: "feat: add native playground",
+  body: "closes #1046",
+  mergedAt: "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z",
+  mergeCommit: { oid: "abc1234" },
+};
+const MENTION_PR = {
+  number: 2381,
+  title: "Improve foo",
+  body: "Related to #1046 and others",
+  mergedAt: "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
+  mergeCommit: { oid: "def5678" },
+};
+
+describe("detectDelivered", () => {
+  it("HIGH confidence when PR merged with 'closes #N'", () => {
+    const r = detectDelivered(1046, {
+      mergedPrs: [CLOSES_PR],
+      changelog: "",
+      gitCommits: [],
+    });
+    assert.equal(r.confidence, "high");
+    assert.equal(r.evidence.pr_merged.number, 2380);
+    assert.match(r.evidence.pr_merged.ref, /closes/i);
+  });
+
+  it("MEDIUM confidence when PR-mention + CHANGELOG", () => {
+    const r = detectDelivered(1046, {
+      mergedPrs: [MENTION_PR],
+      changelog: "## [3.7.2]\n- Foo (#1046)\n",
+      gitCommits: [],
+    });
+    assert.equal(r.confidence, "medium");
+    assert.equal(r.evidence.pr_merged.number, 2381);
+    assert.equal(r.evidence.changelog_section, "## [3.7.2]");
+  });
+
+  it("MEDIUM confidence when CHANGELOG + git log", () => {
+    const r = detectDelivered(1046, {
+      mergedPrs: [],
+      changelog: "## [3.7.2]\n- Foo (#1046)\n",
+      gitCommits: [{ hash: "abc", date: new Date("2026-03-10"), subject: "feat: thing #1046" }],
+    });
+    assert.equal(r.confidence, "medium");
+  });
+
+  it("LOW confidence when only CHANGELOG", () => {
+    const r = detectDelivered(1046, {
+      mergedPrs: [],
+      changelog: "## [3.7.2]\n- Foo (#1046)\n",
+      gitCommits: [],
+    });
+    assert.equal(r.confidence, "low");
+  });
+
+  it("NONE when no signals", () => {
+    const r = detectDelivered(1046, { mergedPrs: [], changelog: "", gitCommits: [] });
+    assert.equal(r.confidence, "none");
+  });
+});